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NFL Thanksgiving Day betting strategy
Here are some notable background details and betting-angle observations for the three-game slate on NFL Thanksgiving Thursday, focusing especially on the early and afternoon games:
2025 NFL Thanksgiving Day Schedule
| Kickoff Time (ET) | Matchup | Location |
|---|---|---|
| 1:00 PM | Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions | Ford Field (Detroit) |
| 4:30 PM | Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys | AT&T Stadium (Arlington) |
| 8:20 PM | Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens | M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore) |
🦃 Historical context & key records
- Detroit Lions have an all-time Thanksgiving Day record of 37-45-2
- Dallas Cowboys meanwhile hold a record of 33-22-1 on Thanksgiving
- The Lions have hosted a Thanksgiving home game almost every year since their first in 1934 (with the WWII interruption)
- The Cowboys began their annual Thanksgiving hosting in 1966 and have played nearly every year since (aside from 1975 & 1977)
📊 Betting/Relevance angles for the three windows
Early Game (12:30 PM ET) — Lions’ slot
- The Lions typically open the day, so this slot is somewhat of a tradition.
- Because of the earlier start, you may see higher scoring expectations (teams may feel the need to jump ahead) or early-game momentum bets might matter more.
- For the Lions, given their historical negative record on Thanksgiving, being underdog might have extra psychological and public pressure factors.
Afternoon Game (4:30 PM ET) — Cowboys’ slot
- The Cowboys are the “middle game” host, which often means greater national exposure and higher stakes.
- Public favourites in this slot can sometimes face inflated lines because of the national audience.
- Since the Cowboys have a strong Thanksgiving record (33-22-1), backing them might appear tempting — but the value may be compressed.
Primetime Game (8:20 PM ET) — Ravens’ slot
- The primetime window attracts the largest national audience, leading to sharper lines and possibly less inefficiencies.
- Live betting swings (in-game props, totals, second half lines) become more relevant due to the increased viewership and momentum shifts.
- For props and totals, watching how the teams performed earlier in the day (weather, injuries, how sharp broadcast commentary influences public sentiment) could matter.
✅ Key tips for your bet-slate
- Monitor injury reports & lineup announcements for the early and afternoon games — any late scratches can move lines quickly.
- Totals (Over/Under) may behave differently in early slot vs primetime slot due to tempo, weather and viewer expectation.
- Live/in-game betting might offer the best value for the primetime game given greater variance and audience momentum.
- Public sentiment tends to favour the host teams (especially Cowboys) so watch for line inflation and take advantage if you believe the odds don’t reflect underlying value.
- For the Lions game: their historical under-performance on Thanksgiving could cause them to be undervalued or overlooked — might be a spot for contrarian plays.
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