ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 6:
PHILADELPHIA -7.5 vs. NY GIANTS (O/U: 40.5] [TNF]
Laying the extra half point off of the touchdown on Philadelphia -7.5 is the kind of mistake that can burn bankrolls. I especially don’t like laying this kind of chalk in divisional games (recall last Thursday night’s SFO-LAR game as a prime example…laying the points seemed too easy). Add the short week, which could add to unpredictability, and I’m avoiding the pointspread.
The Eagles have looked underwhelming and inconsistent, even at 4-1 SU, but obviously they have a big edge in talent and experience over the Giants. It just depends on which Eagles team will show up. Instead, I’ll concentrate on a few prop wagers. This is because the Giants offensive game plan may be easier to figure out.
The best props on the board appear to be related to NYG RB Skattebo. I like his props to go OVER — particularly on rushing attempts and yardage. The Giants WRs are in terrible shape. Star gamebreaker Nabers is now out for the year and the other WR Slayton is out for this game. This means the NYG offense has few skill position players to target. Accordingly, look for a steady diet of rushes and short high-percentage passes from QB Dart (who has a 65 pct. completion rate, but dreadfully low 5.2 YPC, one of the lowest marks in the NFL). He’s making just his third career start, though in both opening drives in his previous two games, the Giants scored a TD, showing solid preparation.
The public loves the Eagles against the Giants
• 80% of the betting handle is on Eagles -7 vs the Giants
o 65% of the bets are on Philadelphia
Get all the latest NFL betting splits for Week 6!
BUSR’s most bet on NFL player props for Thursday Night Football
• Saquon Barkley (-165) is the most bet on Anytime TD Scorer against his former team
• Jaxson Dart 25+ Rush Yards (-304) is the most bet on player prop
In two NFL starts, Dart has rushed for:
54 yards
55 yards
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Rookie RB Skattebo should carry most of the workload on the ground in this game for the Giants. Combine this with the vulnerable Eagles’ defense, which has been below average in stopping the run this season. Skattebo is listed at 11.5 rushing attempts and 46.5 yards. He went 15 for 59 yards against the Saints last week. He also committed a critical fumble in the second half in the red zone that may have cost the Giants a go-ahead score. Afterwards, Skattebo apologized in the media and was given a huge vote of confidence by the Giants coaches and players. This shows the team knows he’ll play an increasingly bigger role in the offense and it’s important to keep up his spirits. I think that translates to a more determined effort this week and perhaps another steady number of opportunities. This is especially the case since the NYG don’t have much else on offense (which may allow the Eagles to stuff the run and force Dart into more throws–which admittedly is a concern).
Prior to that, Skattebo also had 25 carries in the upset win versus the Chargers, good for 79 yards. His other start shows 10 carries, good for 60 yards in a primetime loss to the Chiefs. His first game showed 11 carries for 45 yards. Still, that’s 63 carries for 240 yards in the four games he’s played….and those numbers should arc towards an upward tick. It’s important to note the other primary back in the NYG offense, Tyrone Tracy, has been injured the past few games. Reportedly as of Wed. afternoon, he’s likely to play Thursday night, but may not be at 100 percent. Even with him on the field and taking carries that could go to Skattebo, his projected yardage (O/U) at 22.5 shows betting markets expect he won’t go full-time. In fact, Tracy’s presence in the backfield could help Skattebo’s production since both will get carries.
The Eagles rank #22 in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 136 YPG. Those are uncharacteristically poor numbers for a Vic Fangio-coached D. Surprisingly, the Giants rank #13 in rushing offense, which is better than one would expect from a 1-4 SU team that usually has to abandon the rushing attack late in games because they’re behind.
I think there’s another here to expect Skattebo to surpass 11.5 rushing touches and also go over 46.5 yards. Note that since Tracy was announced as playing, Skattebo’s numbers dropped slightly.
Obviously, we want a close game and long drives with lots of plays by the Giants. I think we could get it. The Eagles don’t look like a team right now that’s ready to blow out an opponent, which would hurt NYG rushing stats.
Wagers:
Player Prop – NYG RB Skattebo OVER 11.5 rushing attempts (-120)
Player Prop – NYG RB Skattebo OVER 46.5 rushing yards (-115)
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